8/19/2023 0 Comments Vox meaning of north carolina![]() ![]() The results were clear: Obama won nationally by about 4 points in 2012, but he lost the median district by about 2 points. They used that power to draw lines that gave them a big advantage in the House.īy 2012, when that last redistricting was finished, the median House district leaned nearly 6 percentage points further toward Republicans presidentially than that year’s national popular vote. The last national redistricting happened after Republicans won sweeping victories in the 2010 midterms, giving them control over many state legislatures and governorships. How Republicans won a big gerrymandering advantage a decade ago, then saw it shrink But unlike much of the previous decade, the underlying map may be at least somewhat less biased in Republicans’ favor. Now, it’s entirely possible, perhaps likely, that Democrats will still lose badly in House elections this fall - the party has a small majority, President Biden is unpopular, and the historical pattern is for the incumbent’s party to struggle in the midterms. Other state court rulings could shift things further, particularly in New York, where Democrats’ gerrymander is under scrutiny.Ĭurrently, it looks like there will be close to an equal number of districts leaning left and right of the national average, with a slight edge to Republicans in the median district. (Joe Biden’s margin in the median district would have nearly matched his national popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election.) But an aggressive gerrymander in GOP-controlled Florida could soon shift things right again, if approved. Meanwhile, Democratic gerrymanders in states like New York and Illinois pulled the median district nearly 3 points leftward, so it was actually close to neutral. ![]() ![]() But state court rulings striking down North Carolina and Ohio maps effectively wiped out most of that net gain. This cycle’s Republican gerrymanders pulled the median district (which already leaned 2 percentage points to the right) another point further right. The most powerful pulls came from either state legislatures that gerrymandered, or state courts that struck down certain gerrymandered maps, as this graphic shows: Amanda Northrop/Vox As state legislatures, judges, and commissions have approved new maps, creating more safe or swing districts in various states, the underlying partisanship of the median House district has been pulled in one direction, and then the other. Redistricting has proceeded like a tug of war. But in the absence of national reforms banning the practice, refusing to gerrymander would have meant effective unilateral disarmament, ceding the GOP a significant advantage in the battle for control over the House. Republicans built on their existing gerrymanders to try to expand their House advantage, but Democrats fired back even more powerfully with gerrymanders of their own.īasically, Democrats saved themselves by resorting to a tactic they’ve previously denounced as not only unfair but downright unethical - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called gerrymandering “unjust and deeply dangerous” in 2019. The main reason is gerrymandering - redrawing of district lines for partisan benefit. And, contrary to expectations that the process would result in big Republican gains, the final House of Representatives map may well improve somewhat for Democrats. The grinding battle over congressional redistricting is drawing to a close. ![]()
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